Expectations in the real estate sector after coronavirus and in the near future
Health problems experienced due to the coronavirus (covid19) outbreak continue throughout the world. People primarily worry about the health status of themselves, their relatives and their families, but the economic dimension of this global problem is also gradually coming up. In fact, the global crisis consists of two feet, health and the economy.
With an optimistic guess; We hope that the health-related part of the epidemic, which has become a global crisis, will be brought under control in the next few months and the problem will be overcome.
Even if the optimistic forecast becomes a reality and the health part of the crisis is overcome, it seems that it will take a long time to repair the economic destruction and normalize the markets.
We don`t even want to think about the pessimistic prediction, but; The deaths caused by the long-term epidemic all over the world, the economic deterioration caused by the global economic collapse, the closure of thousands of small medium-sized businesses, the bankruptcy of large companies, the global unemployed army, the peoples of the world who have experienced a serious welfare loss due to families who cannot produce and consume, chaos environment is another possibility.
As a result of the measures taken to prevent the spread of the virus in our country; There was a serious contraction in the market with the closure of many businesses such as shopping centers, restaurants, cafes and barbers. In many sectors, workplaces are closed, sales are not made, or sales and production and services are carried out with very low capacity.
There is a serious demand contraction in the market.
The fact that the workplaces are closed or working in limited time causes the services and production to slow down. Some enterprises continue their work at low intensity to protect their workers, some can give paid or unpaid leave, but if the crisis becomes long-term, we can think that the vast majority of businesses will go to lay off workers.
Briefly; Whether short or long, during and after the crisis, the economy will shrink around the world and in our country, growth figures will decrease, unemployment will increase and there will be an impoverishment worldwide.
We see that governments have announced economic packages in order to rectify the deteriorating demand foot in the markets and to bring the market back to normal.
Increasing the money supply of most states, ie printing money, will be the basis of the announced economic packages. On the one hand, states will use money to borrow or borrow money, on the other hand, to support large, small and medium-sized businesses, to provide cash or irreversible benefits to families or individuals, and to compensate for the losses of income due to the days or months when citizens cannot work.
When we put aside the health concerns for a moment and look at the functioning of the market and the approach of the states to the issue; MONEY WILL BE PRINTED AND LOW INTEREST POLICY is that a low interest rate policy will be applied during the crisis and even the interest rates will be reduced further.
In the process of overcoming this global crisis, we can say that there will be an increase in money supply, an abundance of money and a low interest rate policy throughout the world. At the same time, it is necessary to think that it will take one or two years to compensate for the damage in the economy.
It may be thought that this issue of money printing will create inflation, but since compensating the loss of demand will not create more demand than actual demand, and therefore high inflation. Even if inflation is the main concern, it is the primary goal to keep the system / market working, and inflation anxiety will not be considered important.
The important thing is to keep the patient alive, in this extraordinary case, the patient`s fever will not be considered, inflation concerns will be in the secondary plan, the main thing is the patient`s life.
Although the policies to be implemented differ slightly from country to country, it seems that the decisions to be taken to protect the market structure and not create chaos in the global economic system do not leave much room for the world states.
The economic decisions we mentioned above seem to be taken by all states.
Accumulations TL. Real estate demands have started to come from people who are in general and who use their money at interest in the bank.
Real estate has always been an investment alternative for Turkish investors, who have seen high inflationary periods in the past.
When the waters are a little cleared and the atmosphere of trust is re-established in the markets, the real estate sector will be an attractive investment alternative for investors.
Interests will remain at low levels for a long period during and after the corona crisis.
developed countries, the domestic currency emerging in the first weeks of the crisis has seen a depreciate against the currencies, but if the money US bonds to countries wanting the US central bank USD Dollar gave that explanation in Turkey to take advantage of this new opportunity in foreign exchange rates can be expected to be much increased.
The remaining two alternatives are gold and real estate.
Given the performance that gold has shown in recent years, it would be unrealistic to expect it to gain much more value in today`s market conditions.
Foreign credit rating agencies in the assessment of the pessimistic scenario would be if they got to do about Turkey it is not as much to them. Turkey inflation, gained immunity accustomed to crisis, crisis, a country that has overcome the problems. Turkey is a country with a history of practical economic crisis fortunate in this regard.
In addition, after the crisis, we will enter a new process that will change the way of life of people, eating and drinking habits, consumption habits, working styles, business plans, social, economic and political areas.
In this process, a trend seems to be possible from large cities to smaller residential areas. Such a change in understanding of life will have an impact on increasing demand for our region.
In short, there will be demand in our region when housing, workplace, land, land suitable for settlements in rural areas, gardens disappear.
The real estate sector will be at the forefront of popular sectors for investment when the waters are stopped.